BaseCurrent
DownsideRisk −
StressHigh risk
UpsideFavorable
Worst case vs Best case
Computed live from your current inputs and risk register — Stress (worst) and Upside (best), independent of the scenario buttons above so you always see both at once.
Worst case —
Best case —
$0Sales (drives P&L)Daily transactions × manual ticket × days open. This is the revenue used in the profit & loss model.
$0Product revenue (check only)Bottom-up total from product prices × units on Drivers. Not used in P&L totals — compare this to your manual sales story for gaps.
$0Op. profit—Sales − COGS − labor − occupancy − fixed costs − fees/marketing/other.
0Break-even daily volumeDaily customer transactions needed to cover labor, occupancy, and fixed costs at the current ticket and cost structure.
$0Funding needEstimated capital to open: inventory, cash reserve, buffers, and early losses. Compare to startup capital available.
0%Op. marginOperating profit ÷ Sales. Higher = more of each sales dollar kept after operating costs.
0%Labor % of salesLoaded payroll ÷ Sales. On thin-margin retail, labor much above roughly 20% of sales squeezes profits.
0%COGS %Cost of Goods Sold rate from the sidebar. COGS $ = Sales × this %. Lower % improves gross profit.
0%Contribution bufferShare of sales left after COGS, labor, occupancy, and fixed costs — headroom before fees/overhead and profit.
0Risk score 0–100From the Risk tab (likelihood × impact). Higher scores strengthen Downside/Stress case adjustments.
$0Plan vs product gapProduct revenue − Sales. Large negative gap means product prices/units are below the plan ticket story.
$0.00Implied product $/customerProduct revenue ÷ (transactions × days). Compare to your manual ticket to see if the product mix matches the plan.
0Daily transactionsPaying customers (or tickets) per open day from Assumptions. Primary volume driver of Sales.
$0Owner take-home / moOperating profit + the pay you give yourself in the first labor role (before income tax). This is what the shop may fund to you.
$0Break-even sales / moMonthly sales needed to cover COGS, labor, occupancy, fixed costs and variable percentages at the current assumptions.
Cost structure
Revenue by stream
P&L
Risk snapshot
Y1 cash
Tornado ±15%
Multi-year projection (merged)
Same engine as the Projection tab — growth, price, labor, and occupancy escalation from the year-1 base.
$0Final-year op. profit
$0Cumulative after tax
$0Per partner
—Capital payback
0%Final-year margin
| Year | Revenue | COGS | Labor | Occupancy | Other | Op. profit | After tax | Cumulative |
|---|
Four gates before you tour
For this kind of shop, the lease and the zoning matter more than the rent. Clear these first.
- Landlord permission. Many leases list prohibited uses or give another tenant an exclusive. Ask the broker in writing whether a tobacco and vape retailer is a permitted use before you spend time touring.
- Zoning. Get written zoning verification from the county. In the Loudoun use tables I read (January 2023 chapter), there is no tobacco or vape category, so the Zoning Administrator decides on a case-by-case basis.
- Distance from schools and child care. State law lets localities restrict new sellers within 1,000 feet of a school or child-care facility. Measure from the nearest entrance to your storefront.
- Permit-contingent lease. Make the lease conditional on Virginia ABC permit approval and zoning sign-off, with rent starting only after approval. ABC expects online applications to take several weeks to process.
Rent by area
Base rent per square foot per year, and what that means for a 1,000 sq ft shop per month. NNN charges (taxes, insurance, common-area upkeep) come on top, roughly $8 to $15 per sq ft.
| Area / center | Base $/SF/yr | 1,000 SF, base / mo | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sterling: older strip centers (Countryside, Route 28) | $16.50 to $38.00 | $1,375 to $3,167 | Cheapest tier. Newer Cascades Overlook runs about $45 to $75. |
| Sterling Village Center, 22034 Shaw Rd | $20 to $27 | $1,667 to $2,250 | Lowest rate found, but units seen were 2,000 to 5,500 SF. Ask about splitting a unit. |
| Regal Center, 20921 Davenport Dr (Sterling) | $40 NNN | $3,333 | 6,500 SF unit confirmed; a 3,900 SF unit on request. |
| Herndon: Elden Street corridor | $42 to $55 (up to $65) | $3,500 to $4,583 | Herndon Centre I has 2,025 and 2,995 SF units. 1040 Elden St listed 1,404 to 2,000 SF at $30 to $38. |
| Ashburn (Broadlands, Schooler Plaza, Junction Plaza comps) | $35 to $48 + $9 to $12 NNN | $2,917 to $4,000 | Ashburn Farm centers said "contact for pricing." |
| Brambleton Town Center | $37.50 + $9.50 NNN = $47 | $3,125 base ($3,917 all-in) | Confirmed on 1,989 and 3,921 SF units. Mixed-use centers often curate tenants, so ask whether tobacco is allowed. |
| One Loudoun (Ashburn) | $32 full service | $2,667 | Comp unit was 1,924 SF; inline units start around 1,299 SF. Lifestyle center, so ask about prohibited uses before touring. |
| Reston | $40 to $55+ | $3,333 to $4,583+ | Mostly "contact for pricing"; Town Center core costs more. |
The planner starts at $3,000 per month all-in for 1,000 sq ft (about $36 per sq ft per year), which matches the lower half of the Sterling and Ashburn ranges. Units that small are often a fit in older strip centers and neighborhood retail, but they need zoning and ATL checks.
What I found and what I could not
| Existing competition (Fairfax) | Fairfax County counted 497 tobacco retail locations at the end of 2024 (all kinds, including convenience stores and gas stations), about 1.3 per square mile of county land, so demand is not zero. |
| Demand and foot traffic | I have no foot-traffic, demographic or sales data for any center above. Ask each broker for traffic counts, do your own drive-by counts at the hours you plan to operate, and keep a local comparison list. |
| Where it fits best | Unknown from my research. Use rent, landlord permission, distance from schools, visibility and parking to rank sites, and let your own counts decide. |
Contacts and links
| Virginia ABC retail tobacco permits | abc.virginia.gov/licenses/tobacco-permits |
| Vapor product directory (Attorney General) | oag.state.va.us/lnnvp/directory |
| Fairfax zoning | Zoning Administration 703-324-1314 · Fairfax zoning guidance |
| Loudoun zoning | Loudoun zoning ordinance, Chapter 3 uses (Jan 2023) |
| Dulles Town Center (mall; ask whether the category is allowed) | Uma@Dulles-Mall.com · 703-576-7655 |
Steps to open legally
| # | Step | Cost / timing | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Form the business (Virginia SCC LLC) and get an EIN | About $100 SCC filing; EIN is free | The ABC application asks for your SCC registration and IRS FEIN document. |
| 2 | Written zoning verification and school / child-care distance check | Varies by county | See the Locations tab. Do this before signing anything. |
| 3 | Sign a lease with contingencies | — | Landlord's written OK for tobacco and vape use; contingent on ABC permit and zoning; rent starts after approval. |
| 4 | ABC retail tobacco permit (one per location) | $400 one-time, non-refundable ($300 if you already hold an ABC license); includes the first 12-month permit. | Required before the sale of covered products. ABC backlog may stretch timelines. |
| 5 | Train every employee | Free | You attest on the application that staff completed training on ID checks, signage, prohibited acts and penalties. ABC says the free training is online. |
| 6 | Virginia sales-tax registration | No fee | Register with Virginia Tax before your first sale. |
| 7 | County business license (BPOL) | Varies with gross receipts | Fairfax and Loudoun each run their own. |
| 8 | Match every vapor product to the Attorney General's directory | — | Offering a vapor product that is not listed carries civil fines starting at $5,000 (ABC). |
| 9 | Buy only from licensed distributors; keep invoices | — | A 2026 bill summary says retailers must keep liquid-nicotine and vape records for three years and post the required notice at the point of sale. |
Permit timing right now
| Required since | October 1, 2026. Selling without the permit after that date may bring misdemeanor charges (ABC). |
| Backlog | WDBJ reported on September 30, 2026 that applications were backing up. A store owner said ABC hoped to clear them by December 1; ABC gave no official timeline. Letters of approval and permit stamps can be delayed. |
| Plan for | Allow roughly 4 to 8 weeks from a complete application (my estimate, longer than ABC's stated 20 to 30 days because of the backlog), and do not start paying rent until the permit path is clear. |
What you can sell
| Vapor products | Only products in the Attorney General's directory. The directory is built on FDA-authorized products, which has historically been a short list, so your vapor range must be validated before launch. |
| Cigarettes, chewing tobacco, snuff, snus, heated tobacco | Covered by the ABC permit. Virginia taxes these products; I could not confirm current per-pack or per-milliliter rates from the schedule in this note. |
| Cigars and pipe tobacco | ABC says the permit is not required for a business that sells only cigars or pipe tobacco. A mixed shop that also sells cigarettes, vapor products or glass pipes is covered by the permit. |
| Glass pipes, blunt wraps and similar accessories | ABC lists these as covered products under the same permit. |
| Hemp-derived THC and cannabis | The ABC permit does not allow cannabis sales; those need a Virginia Cannabis Control Authority license. A federal change taking effect November 13, 2026 may affect hemp-derived THC rules, but the ABC permit is still not the right license for cannabis. |
Age checks and penalties
| Minimum age | 21 for buying, selling and possessing tobacco and vapor products in Virginia. |
| ID checks | A Tobacco 21 policy summary says Virginia requires checking government photo ID when a buyer appears under 30. That summary predates the ABC transition, so confirm the final ABC guidance before you open. |
| Enforcement | A 2026 bill summary says ABC runs unannounced buyer operations at least once every 24 months. Confirm this in the final law or guidance. |
| Penalties under the earlier tax-based license | For vape shops: second violation $5,000 and a 30-day suspension; third violation $10,000, revocation and a three-year bar. ABC's scheme should be checked in final guidance. |
Startup budget benchmarks
From one point-of-sale vendor's blog; it cites no primary data, so treat these as rough. Its line items add up to less than its own stated total, and the gap is unexplained.
| Item | Range |
|---|---|
| Buildout and fixtures | $10,000 to $50,000 |
| Opening inventory | $20,000 to $40,000 |
| Licensing and permits | $1,000 to $5,000+ |
| POS and equipment | $1,500 to $5,000 |
| Signage and branding | $2,000 to $8,000 |
| Stated total | $50,000 to $150,000 |
The planner starts with $90,000 of capital and $28,000 of opening inventory.
Reality check on profit
The same vendor blog puts first-year sales at $150,000 to $300,000 ($12,500 to $25,000 a month) and established shops at $300,000 to $500,000. It gives margins by category: cigarettes and vapor are usually high-volume but low-margin; accessories are better contribution.
| Case | Monthly profit | Owner take-home (profit + your $4,860 pay) |
|---|---|---|
| Starting assumptions | $364 | $5,224 |
| First-year pace: about $20,000/month in sales | -$4,763 | $97 |
| Rent and CAM $1,000 + labor $6,000 + fixed costs + taxes | -$9,000 to -$12,000 | Negative |
Product lines
COGS (Cost of Goods Sold) is calculated per product from wholesale unit cost, other per-unit cost, shrink, and yield. Monthly revenue and COGS feed the P&L, inventory, funding, and sensitivity outputs.
| Product | Sell price $ | Wholesale cost $ | Other $/unit | Shrink % | Yield % | Daily units | Days/mo | Unit COGS $ | Cost % | Monthly rev | Monthly COGS | Contribution |
|---|
Labor roles
| Role | People | Hrs/day | $/hr | Days | Loaded $ |
|---|
Fixed cost centers
| Center | Category | $/mo | Notes |
|---|
Risk register
| Factor | Cat | L | I | Score | Effect | Mitigation |
|---|
By category
Top scores
$0Opening uses
$0Reserve
$0Funding need
$0Gap/surplus
$0Y1 trough
Uses
Monthly CF
| Mo | Rev | Cost | Net | Cum |
|---|
Sensitivity
| Driver | −15% | Base | +15% | Swing |
|---|
$0Final profit
$0Cumulative AT
$0/ partner
—Payback
0%Final margin
| Year | Revenue | COGS | Labor | Occupancy | Other | Op. profit | After tax | Cumulative |
|---|
Scenarios
—
Backup
Offline-safe. Export regularly.